4539 Carlton Rd · Sterling Heights, MI 48310

$49,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,184 sqft · SingleFamily · 94 Days on market

Built 2012 Good condition $42/sqft · 83% below area $766/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful original-owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath home that has been meticulously maintained with pride of ownership throughout. Features include an updated kitchen with all new appliances, central air, and newer vinyl windows that enhance comfort and efficiency. The foundation has been professionally sealed to help prevent rodent intrusion, offering added peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a large insulated shed complete with electricity and a ceiling fan—perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a welcoming, pet-friendly community offering fantastic park amenities including a pool, workout facility, clubhouse, basketball court, and three playgrounds. A truly well-cared-for home in an amenity-rich setting—move right in and enjoy! * * For special financing options contact listing agent * *

Key facts

• New appliances
• Great green space
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• INSULATED SHED
• GREAT GREEN SPACE
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $45k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.8% in Sterling Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in MI, #4,545 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burr Elementary School (math 19% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,081 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 554 students, 79% FRL); Adlai Stevenson High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #260 of 713 statewide, top 37%, 1,977 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 26% district-wide (41 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Utica Community Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($45k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $45,495 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.44%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,598
• List price: $49,995
• Delta: -82.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40114 Tothill Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	13mo	$23,000	$18	57
40010 N Cornwall Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-11%)	17mo	$36,000	$34	54
4280 Gardner St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+14%)	7mo	$260,000	$193	40
39622 University Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,325 (+12%)	23mo	$245,000	$185	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $24,110
• Equity at exit: $7,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $85,280
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $13,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48310

• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$766
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,407

Max offer price $49,995

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $425	-5% $407	+0% $390	+5% $373	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $315	+0% $390	+5% $465	+10% $540
Rate	-1.0pp $415	-0.5pp $403	base $390	+0.5pp $377	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,499
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5150 Rudgate Cir Sterling Heights, MI	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,224	$1.15	1d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $766 · $9,192/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscapingpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,995 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,995 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $49,995 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $51,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $51,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $51,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $51,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $51,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $51,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $51,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $51,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $51,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $51,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $51,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-03-19
    price $52,900 818-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful original-owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath home that has been meticulously maintained with pride of ownership throughout. Features include an updated kitchen with all new appliances, central air, and newer vinyl windows that enhance comfort and efficiency. The foundation has been professionally sealed to help prevent rodent intrusion, offering added peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a large insulated shed complete with electricity and a ceiling fan-perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a welcoming, pet-friendly community offering fantastic park amenities including a pool, workout facility, clubhouse, basketball court, and three playgrounds. A truly well-cared-for home in an amenity-rich setting-move right in and enjoy! * * For special financing options contact listing agent * *

18. 2026-03-19
    price $52,900 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful original-owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath home that has been meticulously maintained with pride of ownership throughout. Features include an updated kitchen with all new appliances, central air, and newer vinyl windows that enhance comfort and efficiency. The foundation has been professionally sealed to help prevent rodent intrusion, offering added peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a large insulated shed complete with electricity and a ceiling fan-perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a welcoming, pet-friendly community offering fantastic park amenities including a pool, workout facility, clubhouse, basketball court, and three playgrounds. A truly well-cared-for home in an amenity-rich setting-move right in and enjoy! * * For special financing options contact listing agent * *

19. 2026-03-19
    listed $52,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful original-owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath home that has been meticulously maintained with pride of ownership throughout. Features include an updated kitchen with all new appliances, central air, and newer vinyl windows that enhance comfort and efficiency. The foundation has been professionally sealed to help prevent rodent intrusion, offering added peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a large insulated shed complete with electricity and a ceiling fan-perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a welcoming, pet-friendly community offering fantastic park amenities including a pool, workout facility, clubhouse, basketball court, and three playgrounds. A truly well-cared-for home in an amenity-rich setting-move right in and enjoy! * * For special financing options contact listing agent * *

20. 2026-03-19
    listed $52,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful original-owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath home that has been meticulously maintained with pride of ownership throughout. Features include an updated kitchen with all new appliances, central air, and newer vinyl windows that enhance comfort and efficiency. The foundation has been professionally sealed to help prevent rodent intrusion, offering added peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a large insulated shed complete with electricity and a ceiling fan-perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a welcoming, pet-friendly community offering fantastic park amenities including a pool, workout facility, clubhouse, basketball court, and three playgrounds. A truly well-cared-for home in an amenity-rich setting-move right in and enjoy! * * For special financing options contact listing agent * *

21. 2026-01-24
    listed $54,995 Active 818-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful original-owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath home that has been meticulously maintained with pride of ownership throughout. Features include an updated kitchen with all new appliances, central air, and newer vinyl windows that enhance comfort and efficiency. The foundation has been professionally sealed to help prevent rodent intrusion, offering added peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a large insulated shed complete with electricity and a ceiling fan-perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a welcoming, pet-friendly community offering fantastic park amenities including a pool, workout facility, clubhouse, basketball court, and three playgrounds. A truly well-cared-for home in an amenity-rich setting-move right in and enjoy! * * For special financing options contact listing agent * *

22. 2026-01-24
    listed $54,995 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Beautiful original-owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath home that has been meticulously maintained with pride of ownership throughout. Features include an updated kitchen with all new appliances, central air, and newer vinyl windows that enhance comfort and efficiency. The foundation has been professionally sealed to help prevent rodent intrusion, offering added peace of mind. Outside, enjoy a large insulated shed complete with electricity and a ceiling fan-perfect for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Located in a welcoming, pet-friendly community offering fantastic park amenities including a pool, workout facility, clubhouse, basketball court, and three playgrounds. A truly well-cared-for home in an amenity-rich setting-move right in and enjoy! * * For special financing options contact listing agent * *

23. 2025-11-18
    historical
24. 2025-11-18
    historical
25. 2025-09-09
    listed $50,000 Active
26. 2025-09-09
    listed $50,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,800
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − HOA: −$9,192
• − Depreciation: −$1,454
• Taxable income: $4,713
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,131
• After-tax cash flow: $3,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with recent updates and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further value enhancement through minor cosmetic upgrades.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Replace old windows with energy-efficient ones — Newer windows improve energy efficiency and reduce heating/cooling costs.
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace old windows with energy-efficient ones — Newer windows improve energy efficiency and reduce heating/cooling costs. ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Modern HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sterling Heights

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #4545

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sterling Heights, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 133,573
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 43,354
• Household income: $78,058
• Rent vs Own: 21.6% rent · 78.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 12% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Arab 8% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Arabic 14% Other Indo-European 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -281.67%
• Current HPI: 197.9662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.47%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+5.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $52,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $52,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-19 Listed $52,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $52,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-24 Listed $54,995 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-24 Listed $54,995 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-09-09 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $50,000 REALCOMP