8967 Buttermilk Rd

South Dayton, NY 14138

$70,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,208/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $285/mo
• Annual: $3,424/yr
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.47%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.73%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,102 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton) (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #512 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $70k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.