8967 Buttermilk Rd · South Dayton, NY 14138

$70,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1910 5.40 ac lot $44/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy quiet and serene living on this 5 acre parcel with 4 bdrm vinyl sided farmhouse. Covered front porch, rear deck and enclosed mudroom. 2 bedrooms up and 2 bedrooms on the 1st floor. 1st floor bath. PROPERTY NEEDS A FULL ROOF, FURNACE, ELECTRIC REPAIR AND INTERIOR REHAB. CASH SALE ONLY!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Gutted kitchen
• Back deck

Tags

• GUTTED KITCHEN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• METAL ROOF
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• BORDERS A CREEK
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Stone foundation; Existing (previously built)
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Circular driveway; Rural, agricultural and irregular lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Bedroom on main level; Partial basement; Basement present; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,102 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton) (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #512 of 590 in NY (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $70k implies a 211% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.47%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,236
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -69.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $39,909
• Equity at exit: $45,489

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.26×
• Total profit: $103,084
• Equity at exit: $83,806

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14138

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,274/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $80,000 Active 810-char remark
16. 2017-05-26
    soldstatus $22,500 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Enjoy quiet and serene living on this 5 acre parcel with 4 bdrm vinyl sided farmhouse. Covered front porch, rear deck and enclosed mudroom. 2 bedrooms up and 2 bedrooms on the 1st floor. 1st floor bath. PROPERTY NEEDS A FULL ROOF, FURNACE, ELECTRIC REPAIR AND INTERIOR REHAB. CASH SALE ONLY!

17. 2017-04-24
    historical 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Enjoy quiet and serene living on this 5 acre parcel with 4 bdrm vinyl sided farmhouse. Covered front porch, rear deck and enclosed mudroom. 2 bedrooms up and 2 bedrooms on the 1st floor. 1st floor bath. PROPERTY NEEDS A FULL ROOF, FURNACE, ELECTRIC REPAIR AND INTERIOR REHAB. CASH SALE ONLY!

18. 2017-03-01
    listed $22,500 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Enjoy quiet and serene living on this 5 acre parcel with 4 bdrm vinyl sided farmhouse. Covered front porch, rear deck and enclosed mudroom. 2 bedrooms up and 2 bedrooms on the 1st floor. 1st floor bath. PROPERTY NEEDS A FULL ROOF, FURNACE, ELECTRIC REPAIR AND INTERIOR REHAB. CASH SALE ONLY!

19. 2017-01-27
    historical
20. 2017-01-19
    listed $24,900
21. 2016-08-11
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,274 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,274 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$3,274
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $2,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Valley Central School District (South Dayton)
• NCES district ID: 3623070
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 21.00%
• Median HH income: $44,734
• Composite: 34.76/100
• National rank: #5129
• State rank: #512 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Dayton

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #22525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,019

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.33%
• Current HPI: 374.5823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+181.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $70,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $80,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-05-26 Sold (MLS) $22,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-04-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-03-01 Listed $22,500 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-27 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-01-19 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-08-11 Listed $24,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,274 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.