6952 Falconer Way

Fort Worth, TX 76179

$265,500D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,332/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,392
• Tax + insurance: −$808
• HOA: −$16
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-373/mo
• Annual: $-4,480/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $74,340

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-373 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD (urban): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #361 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elkins El (math 30% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 656 students, 57% FRL); Creekview Middle (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #275 of 1,662 statewide, top 17%, 844 students, 50% FRL); Boswell H S (math 49% / reading 62%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,547 students, 37% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1880 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.