11941 W Hollyhill Dr

Todd Mission, TX 77363

$145,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,834 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,627/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $193/mo
• Annual: $2,317/yr
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.67%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: High Point El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 478 students, 80% FRL); Navasota J H (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 664 students, 82% FRL); Navasota H S (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 884 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $145k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.