11941 W Hollyhill Dr · Todd Mission, TX 77363

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,834 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 1970 0.40 ac lot $79/sqft · 59% below area $4/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this unique 3-bedroom, 2-bath home set on two lots totaling 0.4 acres, offering peaceful surroundings and private lake access within walking distance from the backyard. Charming stone accents frame a classic sunken living area with a wood-burning fireplace, a galley-style kitchen, and an additional versatile room ideal for an office, storage, or extra bedroom. This property offers great potential as an Airbnb or weekend retreat—just six minutes from the Texas Renaissance Festival. Enjoy outdoor living with wraparound porches and decks, a koi pond, greenhouse, storage space, and a large garage providing ample room for hobbies or relaxation. Bring your personal touches and make this serene getaway your own. Schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Koi pond
• Storage space
• Greenhouse

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE ACCESS
• WRAPAROUND PORCHES
• KOI POND
• GREENHOUSE
• STORAGE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Navasota ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #600 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: High Point El (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 478 students, 80% FRL); Navasota J H (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 664 students, 82% FRL); Navasota H S (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,023 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 884 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Grimes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Grimes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $145k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.67%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,675
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -58.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15248 Alchester Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,990 (+8%)	2mo	$459,000	$231	55
15234 Alchester Ln	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,990 (+8%)	2mo	$450,000	$226	54
15209 Alchester Ln	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,763 (-4%)	20mo	$355,000	$201	49
46437 Covey Trl	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+1%)	19mo	$450,000	$242	42
11370 Greenway Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,913 (+4%)	18mo	$515,000	$269	34
11166 Magnolia Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-15%)	8mo	$249,999	$160	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $29,847
• Equity at exit: $65,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.20×
• Total profit: $89,147
• Equity at exit: $100,478

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77363

• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,414/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,383

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $234	+0% $193	+5% $152	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $65	-5% $129	+0% $193	+5% $257	+10% $322
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $230	base $193	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 221 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $145,000 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $145,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    status Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Discover this unique 3-bedroom, 2-bath home set on two lots totaling 0.4 acres, offering peaceful surroundings and private lake access within walking distance from the backyard. Charming stone accents frame a classic sunken living area with a wood-burning fireplace, a galley-style kitchen, and an additional versatile room ideal for an office, storage, or extra bedroom. This property offers great potential as an Airbnb or weekend retreat—just six minutes from the Texas Renaissance Festival. Enjoy outdoor living with wraparound porches and decks, a koi pond, greenhouse, storage space, and a large garage providing ample room for hobbies or relaxation. Bring your personal touches and make this serene getaway your own. Schedule your private tour today!

16. 2026-05-06
    status Pending 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Discover this unique 3-bedroom, 2-bath home set on two lots totaling 0.4 acres, offering peaceful surroundings and private lake access within walking distance from the backyard. Charming stone accents frame a classic sunken living area with a wood-burning fireplace, a galley-style kitchen, and an additional versatile room ideal for an office, storage, or extra bedroom. This property offers great potential as an Airbnb or weekend retreat—just six minutes from the Texas Renaissance Festival. Enjoy outdoor living with wraparound porches and decks, a koi pond, greenhouse, storage space, and a large garage providing ample room for hobbies or relaxation. Bring your personal touches and make this serene getaway your own. Schedule your private tour today!

17. 2026-02-18
    status Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Discover this unique 3-bedroom, 2-bath home set on two lots totaling 0.4 acres, offering peaceful surroundings and private lake access within walking distance from the backyard. Charming stone accents frame a classic sunken living area with a wood-burning fireplace, a galley-style kitchen, and an additional versatile room ideal for an office, storage, or extra bedroom. This property offers great potential as an Airbnb or weekend retreat—just six minutes from the Texas Renaissance Festival. Enjoy outdoor living with wraparound porches and decks, a koi pond, greenhouse, storage space, and a large garage providing ample room for hobbies or relaxation. Bring your personal touches and make this serene getaway your own. Schedule your private tour today!

18. 2026-02-12
    status Pending 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Discover this unique 3-bedroom, 2-bath home set on two lots totaling 0.4 acres, offering peaceful surroundings and private lake access within walking distance from the backyard. Charming stone accents frame a classic sunken living area with a wood-burning fireplace, a galley-style kitchen, and an additional versatile room ideal for an office, storage, or extra bedroom. This property offers great potential as an Airbnb or weekend retreat—just six minutes from the Texas Renaissance Festival. Enjoy outdoor living with wraparound porches and decks, a koi pond, greenhouse, storage space, and a large garage providing ample room for hobbies or relaxation. Bring your personal touches and make this serene getaway your own. Schedule your private tour today!

19. 2025-10-22
    listed $145,000 Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Discover this unique 3-bedroom, 2-bath home set on two lots totaling 0.4 acres, offering peaceful surroundings and private lake access within walking distance from the backyard. Charming stone accents frame a classic sunken living area with a wood-burning fireplace, a galley-style kitchen, and an additional versatile room ideal for an office, storage, or extra bedroom. This property offers great potential as an Airbnb or weekend retreat—just six minutes from the Texas Renaissance Festival. Enjoy outdoor living with wraparound porches and decks, a koi pond, greenhouse, storage space, and a large garage providing ample room for hobbies or relaxation. Bring your personal touches and make this serene getaway your own. Schedule your private tour today!

20. 2025-09-06
    historical
21. 2025-08-22
    price $169,000
22. 2025-08-13
    listed $179,000 Active
23. 2025-08-03
    historical
24. 2025-07-08
    price $193,000
25. 2025-07-08
    price $193,000
26. 2025-06-06
    listed $200,000 Active
27. 2025-06-06
    listed $200,000 Active
28. 2010-03-16
    soldstatus $66,999
29. 2010-03-16
    soldstatus $66,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,414 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,414
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $78
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$19
• After-tax cash flow: $2,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navasota ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832190
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,326
• Composite: 26.5/100
• National rank: #7205
• State rank: #600 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,246

Population outlook (Grimes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,910 people
• By 2030: 29,539 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 30,648 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 31,698 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 34,351 · +18.8%
• By 2100: 33,565 · +16.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grimes

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.3) · D 19.5% · R 79.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.3pp · 2024: -60.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.3 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+44.2 2008: R+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+116.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $193,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $193,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $200,000 BCSRMLS
• 2010-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $66,999 Public Records
• 2010-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $66,999 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,414 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.