415 E Dean St., Unit 50, Week 8

Aspen, CO 81611

$210,000A-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,753 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$678
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,673
• Net cashflow: $4,165/mo
• Annual: $49,976/yr
• Cap rate: 30.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.99%
• DSCR: 4.78
• 1% rule: 3.79%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $122k; list at $210k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $7,967/mo this rent would consume 116% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.