8000 S Breezy Pine Rd

Mayer, AZ 86333

$299,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-612/mo
• Annual: $-7,339/yr
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (38.4% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#147 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Prescott Unified District (4466) (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #70 of 249 in AZ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prescott Mile High Middle School (math 26% / reading 42%, grade F, #67 of 218 statewide, top 31%, 578 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.