8000 S Breezy Pine Rd · Mayer, AZ 86333

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1974 1.65 ac lot $346/sqft · 25% below area Est $399k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unassuming Turn off of 69 and you would not know there is a small piece of heaven just 9 miles up a dirt road. A diamond in the rough. The community is exceptional with trails just 2 mins away from hiking, exploring or dirt/UTV riding. The cabin is 3 bed, 1 bath with an open floor plan and plenty of room to expand or build a garage to store toys. Break away from the heat and enjoy the pines in the cool summer and snow in the winter time. A small community that gets together for picnics and special events. The neighbors are not only exceptional but also resourceful. The cabin has multiple decks for taking in the clean fresh air. Even a small fire pit area. The cabin was just repiped with pex. Has propane heat for the winter and a real wood burning fire place. Breezy Pine is rich in history being a previous mining town. You can still visit the old school house and find evidence of old buildings and we still find a railroad spikes here and there. Breezy is the escape you are looking for and is just a bit over an hour from the Anthem area. Come up and let me take you around to show you the tour.

Key facts

• 1.65 acre lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 86 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (38.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (38.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#147 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Prescott Unified District (4466) (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #70 of 249 in AZ (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Prescott Mile High Middle School (math 26% / reading 42%, grade F, #67 of 218 statewide, top 31%, 578 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,139 (38.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.77%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,456
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -25.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $123,916
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $395,602
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $210,497

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-405	-5% $-508	+0% $-612	+5% $-715	+10% $-818
Rent	-10% $-757	-5% $-684	+0% $-612	+5% $-539	+10% $-466
Rate	-1.0pp $-461	-0.5pp $-536	base $-612	+0.5pp $-689	+1.0pp $-768

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-03-26
    listed $337,000 Active 1108-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1108 chars)

    Unassuming Turn off of 69 and you would not know there is a small piece of heaven just 9 miles up a dirt road. A diamond in the rough. The community is exceptional with trails just 2 mins away from hiking, exploring or dirt/UTV riding. The cabin is 3 bed, 1 bath with an open floor plan and plenty of room to expand or build a garage to store toys. Break away from the heat and enjoy the pines in the cool summer and snow in the winter time. A small community that gets together for picnics and special events. The neighbors are not only exceptional but also resourceful. The cabin has multiple decks for taking in the clean fresh air. Even a small fire pit area. The cabin was just repiped with pex. Has propane heat for the winter and a real wood burning fire place. Breezy Pine is rich in history being a previous mining town. You can still visit the old school house and find evidence of old buildings and we still find a railroad spikes here and there. Breezy is the escape you are looking for and is just a bit over an hour from the Anthem area. Come up and let me take you around to show you the tour.

18. 2025-12-22
    historical
19. 2025-11-03
    price $349,999
20. 2025-09-21
    listed $380,000 Active
21. 2023-11-13
    soldstatus $285,000
22. 2023-09-15
    soldstatus $280,000
23. 2003-07-14
    soldstatus $82,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$12,866
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,088
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prescott Unified District (4466)
• NCES district ID: 0406730
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 33.47/100
• National rank: #5450
• State rank: #70 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mayer

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #17284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+308.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $337,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $349,999 ARMLS
• 2025-09-21 Listed $380,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $82,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.