11 bd · None ba ·
15,925 sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$18,254/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$9,177
Tax + insurance
−$1,079
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,833
Net cashflow
$4,164/mo
Annual
$49,968/yr
Cap rate
9.15%
Cash-on-cash
10.20%
DSCR
1.45
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$490,000
Investor read
This is a 11-bed/?-bath multifamily listed at $1.75M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($50k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.75M).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.70M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.70M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $144k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $131k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $130k; list at $1.75M implies a 1246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $490k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$230k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $18,254/mo this rent would consume 407% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-482ZFP2ZE7640N
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29