7021 W Bucking Horse Rd

Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$109,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $992/mo
• Annual: $11,907/yr
• Cap rate: 17.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.70%
• DSCR: 2.72
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sopori Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #871 of 1,109 statewide, top 80%, 109 students, 77% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Walden Grove High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 381 statewide, top 28%, 1,139 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 27% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 444 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $110k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.