7021 W Bucking Horse Rd · Sahuarita, AZ 85629

$109,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,492 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Built 1989 4.94 ac lot $74/sqft · 68% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Deeply Discounted Investor Opportunity on 4.94 Acres in Sahuarita! Rare chance to secure a discounted property with major upside. 3 bed, 2 bath manufactured home (1,492 sqft) with existing utilities, septic, and hauled water. Features include mini-split system and tankless water heater. Home needs full renovation- ideal for fix & flip, rental, or land hold strategy. Private setting with wide-open desert views and no HOA. Cash or private financing only. Sold as-is. Strong value-add potential with room to expand, improve, or reposition. Don't miss this high-equity opportunity in a growing area. Significant upside with rehab.

Key facts

• Mini-split system
• Private setting
• 4.94 acres

Tags

• 4.94 ACRES
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• PRIVATE SETTING
• DESERT VIEWS
• STRONG VALUE-ADD POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - RH

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Previously developed lot; Dirt roads with county maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, refrigerator, electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Mini-split heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $991 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 3.8% in Sahuarita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#43 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sahuarita Unified District (4411) (town): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #63 of 249 in AZ (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sopori Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #871 of 1,109 statewide, top 80%, 109 students, 77% FRL); Sahuarita Middle School (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #65 of 218 statewide, top 30%, 579 students, 40% FRL); Walden Grove High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #104 of 381 statewide, top 28%, 1,139 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 27% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 444 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $110k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.65%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,499
• List price: $109,900
• Delta: -68.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14894 S Avenida Red Roan Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	8mo	$318,000	$237	61
14224 S Avenida Haley	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+13%)	2mo	$185,000	$110	56
6405 W Bucking Horse Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-8%)	16mo	$254,000	$185	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $39,792
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $94,470
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85629

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,079 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $356/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $991

Break-even live

Break-even rent $825

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $109,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $119,900 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,900 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,900 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    price $128,900 635-char remark
18. 2026-04-26
    listed $134,900 Active 635-char remark
19. 2004-02-03
    soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $356 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$370/yr (+$31/mo · 104.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,953
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$356
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,996
• − Management: −$1,996
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $10,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,569
• After-tax cash flow: $9,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sahuarita Unified District (4411)
• NCES district ID: 0407300
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $63,564
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5072
• State rank: #63 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sahuarita

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #8414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 31,668
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,668
• Household income: $109,253
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 220.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.38%
• Current HPI: 234.6422
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+69.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $109,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $119,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $128,900 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-26 Listed $134,900 MLSSAZ
• 2004-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $356 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.