4162 Sullivan Rd

Mariposa, CA 95338

$162,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 366 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $233/mo
• Annual: $2,793/yr
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $45,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $162k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#267 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, health & safety C-.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $83k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Mariposa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.