4368 S Lake Orlando Pkwy #203

Orlando, FL 32808

$179,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,089 sqft · Built 1983 · Condo · Active · 218 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$385
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-85/mo
• Annual: $-1,019/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (6.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Silver Elementary (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 412 students, 68% FRL); College Park Middle (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #428 of 571 statewide, top 76%, 760 students, 74% FRL); Edgewater High (math 14% / reading 46%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 2,059 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 347 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,946/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 23% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?