11473 Holiday Shores Dr

Bismarck, MO 63624

$52,500B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 946 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Pending · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $874/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $344/mo
• Annual: $4,134/yr
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.12%
• DSCR: 2.25
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $14,700

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $52k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($874 rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($363 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Valley R-VI (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #230 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caledonia Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 165 students, 52% FRL); Valley High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 183 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.
• Washington County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.