11473 Holiday Shores Dr · Bismarck, MO 63624

$52,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 946 sqft · Other public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1972 0.29 ac lot $17/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2 bed, 1 bath home located in a lake community. Features a detached garage and multiple sheds for extra storage. Perfect as a full-time residence or weekend getaway—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Multiple sheds
• Lake community
• Extra storage

Tags

• LAKE COMMUNITY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• MULTIPLE SHEDS
• EXTRA STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($874 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#583 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Valley R-VI (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #230 of 324 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Caledonia Elem. (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 165 students, 52% FRL); Valley High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #382 of 521 statewide, top 78%, 183 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($363 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $47,775 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.12%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.44×
• Total profit: $50,536
• Equity at exit: $47,296

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.95×
• Total profit: $131,572
• Equity at exit: $101,996

Cash invested: $14,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63624

• Home prices YoY: 23.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$275
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $438

Max offer price $52,500

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,125
• Closing costs: $1,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $52,500
3. 2026-02-15
   price $63,100
4. 2026-01-24
   price $67,000
5. 2025-12-25
   listed $74,900 Active
6. 2022-05-27
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $509 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: +$129/yr (+$11/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,941
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$262
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$839
• − Management: −$839
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$1,527
• Taxable income: $3,494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$839
• After-tax cash flow: $3,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2930720
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $40,678
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6616
• State rank: #230 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #20759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,507

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,761 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 20,992 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 18,849 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 13,749 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 9,016 · -62.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 17.1% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.3pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+18.6 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 61.65%
• Current HPI: 320.8335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+5.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $52,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $63,100 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $67,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-25 Listed $74,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $381 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.