934 Moonshine Ln

New Braunfels, TX 78132

$252,999D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,032/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax + insurance: −$422
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-143/mo
• Annual: $-1,721/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $70,840

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1528 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.