934 Moonshine Ln · New Braunfels, TX 78132

$252,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $141/sqft · 31% below area Est $366k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-floor living. An open-concept design blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for optimal multitasking and everyday transitions. A nearby covered patio provides effortless outdoor recreation. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hernandez El (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 525 students, 65% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 1526 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,169 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,742
• List price: $252,999
• Delta: -30.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3751 Moon Hill Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (-5%)	3mo	$225,999	$134	87
3763 Moon Hill Rd	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+6%)	3mo	$237,999	$125	85
110 Hunter Ridge Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,694 (-5%)	7mo	$350,000	$207	62
126 Hunter Ridge Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (-6%)	1mo	$429,000	$255	57
318 Hunter Rdg	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (+9%)	9mo	$485,000	$249	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-56,052
• Equity at exit: $37,723

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-83,454
• Equity at exit: $21,875

Cash invested: $70,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.6 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,499 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +30.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78132

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 1526
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,327
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$316 /mo · $3,795/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,213

Max offer price $232,251

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-56	+0% $-143	+5% $-231	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-304	-5% $-224	+0% $-143	+5% $-63	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-16	-0.5pp $-79	base $-143	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,250
• Closing costs: $7,590
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Harmons Way Unit 109 San Marcos, TX	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	103d	1	0.35mi
318 Hunter Ridge Rd San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,100	$1.08	139d	1	0.70mi
4334 Transportation Way San Marcos, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,515	$1.46	6d	16	0.76mi
618 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,972	$1.99	0d	24	0.79mi
420 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,713	$1.12	80d	1	0.87mi
425 El Rio St San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,937	$1.82	0d	26	0.94mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1950	$1,995	$1.02	113d	1	0.99mi
156 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1950	$1,995	$1.02	139d	1	0.99mi
144 Edward R Gaytan St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$1,975	$1.13	119d	1	1.02mi
208 Shugart St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,899	$1.22	94d	1	1.13mi
139 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,899	$1.22	70d	1	1.16mi
204 Rollingwood Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	2027	$2,150	$1.06	10d	1	1.21mi
145 Tortoise Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	2196	$2,100	$0.96	139d	1	1.22mi
502 Commercial Loop San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1222	$2,550	$2.09	3d	46	1.23mi
1158 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,750	$1.35	43d	1	1.34mi
435 Spiny Lizard Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	2021	$2,150	$1.06	119d	1	1.38mi
233 William Moon Way San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	2102	$2,100	$1.00	56d	1	1.41mi
1121 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,795	$1.26	40d	1	1.41mi
250 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,950	$1.25	110d	1	1.41mi
1052 Esplanade Pkwy San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$1,769	$1.36	0d	1	1.43mi
133 Netherland St San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2275	$2,195	$0.96	94d	1	1.44mi
249 Sage Meadows Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,875	$1.28	10d	1	1.45mi
634 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2275	$2,150	$0.95	43d	1	1.46mi
626 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2044	$2,000	$0.98	10d	1	1.47mi
629 Jane Long Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,100	$0.97	43d	1	1.49mi
313 Merriman Rd San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$1,995	$0.92	10d	1	1.49mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2186	$2,195	$1.00	80d	1	1.50mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2186	$2,195	$1.00	74d	1	1.50mi
115 Rosa Rd San Marcos, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,195	$1.01	68d	1	1.50mi
217 Snowbell St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	2338	$2,150	$0.92	43d	1	1.50mi
133 Camino Verde San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1931	$2,600	$1.35	100d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, Cornwall planSpec inventory
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,788 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active spec home (Cornwall plan)

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-07-16
   days on market $252,999 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on market $252,999 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $252,999 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $252,999 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $252,999 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-07-11
   days on market $252,999 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-07-10
   days on market $252,999 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   days on market $252,999 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   days on market $252,999 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-07-06
    days on market $252,999 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-07-05
    pricedays on market $252,999 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-07-03
    days on market $251,999 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-07-02
    days on market $251,999 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-07-01
    days on market $251,999 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-30
    days on market $251,999 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-06-29
    days on market $251,999 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-06-28
    days on market $251,999 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-06-27
    days on market $251,999 Active 55 DOM
19. 2026-06-26
    days on market $251,999 Active 54 DOM
20. 2026-06-24
    days on market $251,999 Active 52 DOM
21. 2026-06-22
    days on market $251,999 Active 50 DOM
22. 2026-06-21
    days on market $251,999 Active 49 DOM
23. 2026-06-18
    days on market $251,999 Active 46 DOM
24. 2026-06-17
    days on market $251,999 Active 45 DOM
25. 2026-06-16
    days on market $251,999 Active 44 DOM
26. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $251,999 Active 43 DOM
27. 2026-06-13
    days on market $254,999 Active 41 DOM
28. 2026-06-10
    price $254,999 Active 37 DOM
29. 2026-06-09
    days on market $257,999 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-06-08
    days on market $257,999 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-06-07
    days on market $257,999 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $257,999 Active 32 DOM
33. 2026-06-03
    days on market $262,999 Active 31 DOM
34. 2026-06-02
    days on market $262,999 Active 30 DOM
35. 2026-06-01
    days on market $262,999 Active 29 DOM
36. 2026-05-31
    days on market $262,999 Active 28 DOM
37. 2026-05-16
    price $284,999 437-char remark
38. 2026-05-13
    price $287,999 437-char remark
39. 2026-05-01
    price $267,999 437-char remark
40. 2026-04-27
    listed $284,999 Active 437-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,172
• − Property taxes: −$3,795
• − Insurance: −$1,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$7,360
• Taxable loss: −$6,112
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,467
• After-tax cash flow: $-254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,940–$26,820 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean and maintain gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hernandez El F TX #1,709/4,322 Nat'l #21,128/41,679 Middle Goodnight Middle F TX #1,536/1,662 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High San Marcos H S F TX #1,157/1,632 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 83/100

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 286,948 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,953
• Household income: $135,315
• Rent vs Own: 12.5% rent · 87.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.57%
• Current HPI: 202.432
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.32%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home, Cornwall planSpec inventory
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,788 (living area provided)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active spec home (Cornwall plan)