15051 Royal Oaks Ln #1203

North Miami, FL 33181

$470,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · Built 2007 · Condo · Active · 1369 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,471/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax + insurance: −$1,217
• HOA: −$1,458
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$939
• Net cashflow: $-1,607/mo
• Annual: $-19,285/yr
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.76%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $131,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $470k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $444k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $447k (4.9% below list).
• It's been on market 1369 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $414k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#51 in FL, #914 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $320k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.1% in North Miami — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,471/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 1914% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 1369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?