15051 Royal Oaks Ln #1203 · North Miami, FL 33181

$470,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,801 sqft · Condo public records · 1369 Days on market

Built 2007

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gorgeous views from this huge 2/3 (den can be closed to make a 3rd Bedroom), laundry room, 1,801sq. f + balcony, large master bedroom and master bath with jacuzzi. 1 assigned garage space, second parking for $65/month, valet 24 hours. New pool, tennis court, gym, children's play areas. Near to Aventura Mall, FIU, Oleta Nature Preserve, beach, across the street from Costco.

Key facts

• Garage
• Community pool
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association amenities include basketball court, billiard room, clubhouse, fitness center, pool, tennis courts, and elevators; HOA covers association management, common areas, insurance, grounds maintenance, structure maintenance, sewer, security, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned covered detached garage space; 1 garage space
• Security: Complex fenced; Security guard; Smoke detectors
• Home design: Attached property; 12-story building
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Balcony (open); Exterior lighting; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Self-cleaning oven; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Closet cabinetry; Other interior features; Tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $444k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $447k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $414k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.1% in North Miami — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#51 in FL, #914 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,471/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 1914% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1369 days — a 12% lower offer ($414k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $320k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 33% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $413,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.76%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-190,390
• Equity at exit: $70,079

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.61×
• Total profit: $-343,233
• Equity at exit: $40,637

Cash invested: $131,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33181

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,471 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,465
• Tax from tax record: −$594 /mo · $7,131/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA est. from 6 same-building comps: −$1,458
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$939
• Net cashflow: $-1,607

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,506

Max offer price $186,100

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,500
• Closing costs: $14,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $470,000 Active 1369 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $470,000 Active 1368 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $470,000 Active 1367 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $470,000 Active 1366 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $470,000 Active 1364 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $470,000 Active 1360 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,000 Active 1359 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $470,000 Active 1358 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $470,000 Active 1355 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $470,000 Active 1354 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $470,000 Active 1353 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $470,000 Active 1352 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $470,000 Active 1351 DOM
14. 2024-10-07
    status Active
15. 2024-10-07
    price $470,000
16. 2024-09-18
    status Pending
17. 2022-08-30
    listed $485,000 Active
18. 2014-06-24
    soldstatus $320,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,131 · $594/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,131 · $594/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,327
• − Property taxes: −$7,131
• − Insurance: −$7,468
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,292
• − Management: −$4,292
• − HOA: −$17,496
• − Depreciation: −$13,673
• Taxable loss: −$27,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,486
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Miami

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #914

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Miami, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 99,437
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,848
• Household income: $63,275
• Rent vs Own: 62.4% rent · 37.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 29% Two or more races 23% White 22% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 8% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 18% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 51% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 44% French/Haitian/Cajun 18% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -334.57%
• Current HPI: 341.3285
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.11%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+46.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-07 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $470,000 MARMLS
• 2024-09-18 Pending — MARMLS
• 2022-08-30 Listed $485,000 MARMLS
• 2014-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,131 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.