17775 Machs Way

Cottonwood, CA 96022

$70,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Active · 738 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,609/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $863/mo
• Annual: $10,355/yr
• Cap rate: 21.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.83%
• DSCR: 3.35
• 1% rule: 2.30%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 738 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#476 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Evergreen Union (rural): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #226 of 517 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 272 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 3.0% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 738 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.