1002 Geer Rd

Turlock, CA 95380

$2,995,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $27,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,706
• Tax + insurance: −$2,594
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,719
• Net cashflow: $3,213/mo
• Annual: $38,555/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $838,600

Investor read

• This is a 17 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $3.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive. Per door: $189/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.72M (9.1% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.95M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.72M (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $1.30M; list at $3.00M implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $27,232/mo this rent would consume 438% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1545% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.