1002 Geer Rd · Turlock, CA 95380

$2,995,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1940 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 17 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

The Bee Apartments offer a 17-unit multifamily investment located at 1002 Geer Road in Turlock. The property features a wide unit mix, ranging from a 260 SF Studio to a spacious 4-BD, 2.5-BA unit (1,669 SF), with the majority made up of large 1,065 SF 2-BD, 1.5-BA Townhomes. The property has been recently renovated, giving investors a clean, stabilized asset with strong in-place income and limited near-term capital needs. The updated condition helps drive tenant demand while supporting long-term retention. Located just minutes from Downtown Turlock, residents enjoy easy access to local dining, retail, and major drivers like California State University, Stanislaus and Highway 99.

Key facts

• Wide unit mix
• Recently renovated
• 0.5 acre lot

Tags

• 17 UNIT MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT
• WIDE UNIT MIX
• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• CLEAN STABILIZED ASSET
• STRONG IN PLACE INCOME
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Residential income property with 17 total units
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Total parking for 17 vehicles
• Utilities: Cable connected; Natural gas connected; Public sewer; Water meter on site; Irrigation: see remarks
• Home design: Residential income property (apartments); 5 or more units; Two stories; Built in 1940; Address: 1002 Geer Rd, Turlock, CA
• Construction: Year built 1940
• Exterior features: Half-acre lot (approx. 0.5 acre)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit example: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Unit example: 2 full baths, 1 partial bath
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace; Ceiling fan(s); Wall unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Wall units (cooling); Wall furnace heating; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring; Two-story building
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other (on-site)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 17 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $3.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive. Per door: $189/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.72M (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.72M (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Turlock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#353 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, health & safety A-, commute B; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime D-.
• Turlock Unified (suburban): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #334 of 517 in CA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $27,232/mo this rent would consume 438% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1545% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $21k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $90k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($2.95M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $1.30M; list at $3.00M implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,723,200 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $725,994
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
177 Almond Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (-7%)	9mo	$675,000	$477	65
426 Flower St	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,742 (+14%)	12mo	$450,000	$258	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-328,351
• Equity at exit: $446,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-211,431
• Equity at exit: $258,953

Cash invested: $838,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95380

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 155.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$15,706
• Tax from tax record: −$1,346 /mo · $16,156/yr
• Insurance: −$1,248
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,719
• Net cashflow: $3,213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,165

Max offer price $2,995,000

Occupancy floor 83%

17-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 17× units	2	1.5	$27,234
Total (17 units)			$27,232

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $748,750
• Closing costs: $89,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1020 Stonridge Dr Turlock, CA	3.0	3.0	1678	$2,375	$1.42	21d	1	0.71mi
455 Vassar Ave Turlock, CA	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,500	$1.36	13d	1	0.79mi
1193 East Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	1206	$2,150	$1.78	13d	1	0.87mi
475 Georgetown Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,350	$1.95	21d	1	1.14mi
731 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,750	$1.41	13d	1	1.14mi
1020 W Minnesota Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,600	$1.54	21d	1	1.15mi
1700 N Tully Rd Turlock, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,065	$2.31	13d	1	1.21mi
1055 Vermont Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1283	$2,000	$1.56	43d	1	1.24mi
630 Newcomb Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1961	$2,095	$1.07	43d	1	1.38mi
1133 S Minaret Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1117	$2,350	$2.10	43d	1	1.40mi
1020 W Monte Vista Ave Turlock, CA	3.0	2.0	1691	$2,600	$1.54	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2017-03-15
   soldstatus $1,300,000
2. 2000-03-31
   soldstatus $340,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $16,156 · $1,346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,762 · $1,897/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,606/yr (+$550/mo · 40.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $326,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$167,767
• − Property taxes: −$16,156
• − Insurance: −$14,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,143
• − Management: −$26,143
• − Depreciation: −$87,127
• Taxable loss: −$11,527
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,766
• After-tax cash flow: $41,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turlock Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600158
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,249
• Composite: 26.58/100
• National rank: #7184
• State rank: #334 of 517 in CA

Livability — Turlock

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #353
• US rank: #11971

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turlock, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 83,043
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 43,960
• Household income: $74,534
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1545.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 14% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Indo-European 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -614.27%
• Current HPI: 307.7264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+282.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2017-03-15 Sold (Public Records) $1,300,000 Public Records
• 2000-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $340,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $16,156 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.