127 E Valley Point Ln

Kimmel, PA 16625

$50,000A-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 786 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,253/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$342
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $302/mo
• Annual: $3,629/yr
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.92%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 2.51%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Claysburg-Kimmel SD (rural): math 37% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #284 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: kitchen flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: exterior siding — weathered and in need of repainting
• Moderate: exterior roof — visible wear and potential leaks