127 E Valley Point Ln · Kimmel, PA 16625

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 786 sqft · Condo · 26 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition $64/sqft · 22% below area Est $70k · 29% under $342/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller has already paid the 2025 Special Assessment fee :) and in January 2025 has installed a new electric fireplace :) Ready to move in :) Nice fully-furnished 2-bedroom 2-bath Blue Knob condo located across from indoor hot-tub. Many extras including remote control air conditioning unit, washer/dryer combo, webcam and alarm system. Great 3rd-floor location with balcony overlooking woods. $342/mo HOA dues include outside maintenance, snow removal, indoor & outdoor pools, hottubs & tennis. J-659

Key facts

• $342 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1979

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $50,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$70,245) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Claysburg-Kimmel SD (rural): math 37% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #284 of 539 in PA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.92%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,245
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 10.33%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $28,752
• Equity at exit: $25,925

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $71,885
• Equity at exit: $42,866

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16625

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$342
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $870

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $342 · $4,104/yr
• Likely covers: electricsnow removalpool
• ⚠ Special-assessment mentions:

  Seller has already paid the 2025 Special Assessment fee :) and in January 2025 has installed a new electric fireplace :) Ready to move in :) Nice fully-furnished…

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 500-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   status $50,000 Pending 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $50,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2025-10-08
    price $77,500 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Seller has already paid the 2025 Special Assessment fee :) and in January 2025 has installed a new electric fireplace :) Ready to move in :) Nice fully-furnished 2-bedroom 2-bath Blue Knob condo located across from indoor hot-tub. Many extras including remote control air conditioning unit, washer/dryer combo, webcam and alarm system. Great 3rd-floor location with balcony overlooking woods. $342/mo HOA dues include outside maintenance, snow removal, indoor & outdoor pools, hottubs & tennis. J-659

18. 2025-02-17
    price $79,900 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Seller has already paid the 2025 Special Assessment fee :) and in January 2025 has installed a new electric fireplace :) Ready to move in :) Nice fully-furnished 2-bedroom 2-bath Blue Knob condo located across from indoor hot-tub. Many extras including remote control air conditioning unit, washer/dryer combo, webcam and alarm system. Great 3rd-floor location with balcony overlooking woods. $342/mo HOA dues include outside maintenance, snow removal, indoor & outdoor pools, hottubs & tennis. J-659

19. 2025-01-02
    price $125,000
20. 2025-01-02
    price $65,000
21. 2024-11-08
    listed $79,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Seller has already paid the 2025 Special Assessment fee :) and in January 2025 has installed a new electric fireplace :) Ready to move in :) Nice fully-furnished 2-bedroom 2-bath Blue Knob condo located across from indoor hot-tub. Many extras including remote control air conditioning unit, washer/dryer combo, webcam and alarm system. Great 3rd-floor location with balcony overlooking woods. $342/mo HOA dues include outside maintenance, snow removal, indoor & outdoor pools, hottubs & tennis. J-659

22. 2024-10-31
    price $69,000
23. 2024-10-31
    price $135,000
24. 2024-07-26
    historical $1,350
25. 2024-07-18
    listed $1,350
26. 2024-07-18
    historical $1,350
27. 2024-06-12
    listed $1,350
28. 2024-06-12
    historical $1,350
29. 2024-04-25
    listed $1,350
30. 2024-04-25
    historical $1,350
31. 2024-04-04
    listed $1,350
32. 2014-05-09
    soldstatus $43,000
33. 2014-02-10
    listed $49,500
34. 2012-03-23
    soldstatus $43,000
35. 2011-04-14
    listed $49,000
36. 2010-04-20
    listed $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − HOA: −$4,104
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$785
• After-tax cash flow: $2,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This second-floor 2-bedroom 2-bath condo in the Allegheny Mountains at Blue Knob All Seasons requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen flooring — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate exterior siding — weathered and in need of repainting
• Moderate exterior roof — visible wear and potential leaks

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance
• Both replace kitchen cabinets and appliances — new cabinets and appliances can greatly enhance the home's functionality and appeal
• Both replace kitchen flooring — new flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — new fixtures can improve the home's functionality and appeal
• Both paint exterior siding — fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality
• Both repair exterior roof — repairing the roof can prevent further damage and improve the home's functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen flooring · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · weathered and in need of repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior roof · visible wear and potential leaks	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$18,000–90,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance ↑
• Both replace kitchen cabinets and appliances — new cabinets and appliances can greatly enhance the home's functionality and appeal ↑
• Both replace kitchen flooring — new flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — new fixtures can improve the home's functionality and appeal ↑
• Both paint exterior siding — fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and functionality ↑
• Both repair exterior roof — repairing the roof can prevent further damage and improve the home's functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Claysburg-Kimmel SD
• NCES district ID: 4206120
• Math proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,568
• Composite: 37.68/100
• National rank: #4365
• State rank: #284 of 539 in PA

Livability — Kimmel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,551

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.20%
• Current HPI: 122.9552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+58.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $77,500 AHARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $79,900 AHARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $65,000 AHARMLS
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $125,000 AHARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Listed $79,000 AHARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $69,000 AHARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $135,000 AHARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-18 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-07-18 Rental Removed $1,350 AHARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed for Rent $1,350 AHARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Rental Removed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-25 Listed for Rent $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-25 Rental Removed $1,350 AHARMLS
• 2024-04-04 Listed for Rent $1,350 AHARMLS
• 2014-05-09 Sold (MLS) $43,000 AHARMLS
• 2014-02-10 Listed $49,500 AHARMLS
• 2012-03-23 Sold (MLS) $43,000 AHARMLS
• 2011-04-14 Listed $49,000 AHARMLS
• 2010-04-20 Listed $49,000 AHARMLS