415 W 2nd St S

Fulton, NY 13069

$135,000A-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Built 1866 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,850/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $608/mo
• Annual: $7,301/yr
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.32%
• DSCR: 1.86
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1866 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $135k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 6.7% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1866 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.