415 W 2nd St S · Fulton, NY 13069

$135,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1866 0.30 ac lot Est $173k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Purchasers must be first-time homebuyers and are subject to income limits (80% AMI and below) and owner-occupancy requirements pursuant to New York State Homes & Community Renewal’s Legacy City ACCESS Program. Purchasers must complete income qualification and homebuyer education training with a HUD-certified homeownership counselor prior to purchase. Property being sold on first-come-first-serve basis with offers to be considered in the order they are received (to be considered, package must include a copy of Purchaser's preapproval and purchase offer contract containing language in Section 26 indicating Purchaser represents their household income is within 80% AMI and below). P

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1866

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 6.9% in Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#907 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Fulton City School District (town): math 29% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #554 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $135k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1866 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1866 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.32%
• DSCR: 1.86
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $172,584
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
464 W 3rd St S	0.12mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-4%)	6mo	$171,000	$97	78
313 W 3rd St S	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,040 (+11%)	6mo	$126,175	$62	62
362 S 4th St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,812 (-1%)	8mo	$180,000	$99	58
720 W 1st St S	0.60mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,897 (+3%)	4mo	$200,000	$105	58
701 W 1st St S	0.48mi	5/1.5	1,719 (-6%)	11mo	$222,500	$129	56
368 S 7th St	0.74mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,842 (+0%)	3mo	$162,000	$88	55
406 Park St	0.51mi	5/2.0	2,028 (+10%)	10mo	$159,900	$79	50
205 S 4th St	0.66mi	4/1.5 (-1)	2,004 (+9%)	8mo	$215,000	$107	41
410 Park St	0.51mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,595 (-13%)	10mo	$141,400	$89	39
515 Highland St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,974 (+8%)	15mo	$80,000	$41	36
10 Taylor Ave	0.63mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,599 (-13%)	9mo	$151,000	$94	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $83,772
• Equity at exit: $91,318

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $214,705
• Equity at exit: $171,478

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13069

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,066/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,080

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $647	+0% $608	+5% $570	+10% $532
Rent	-10% $462	-5% $535	+0% $608	+5% $682	+10% $755
Rate	-1.0pp $676	-0.5pp $643	base $608	+0.5pp $573	+1.0pp $538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
303 S 5th St Fulton, NY	4.0	1.5	1800	$1,850	$1.03	14d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   listed $135,000 Active
3. 2005-10-25
   soldstatus $55,000
4. 2002-06-11
   soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,066 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,674 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$608/yr (+$51/mo · 57.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,066
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $5,417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,300
• After-tax cash flow: $6,001/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton City School District
• NCES district ID: 3611700
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,337
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6220
• State rank: #554 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fulton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #17723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulton, NY
• Population (ZIP): 23,176

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Current HPI: 304.443
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+141.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $135,000 CNYIS
• 2005-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-13.9%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,066 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.