3869 Princeton Rd

Hamburg, NY 14075

$130,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,097 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $296/mo
• Annual: $3,552/yr
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#43 in NY, #692 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Big Tree Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 540 students, 38% FRL); Frontier Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 1,071 students, 34% FRL); Frontier Senior High School (math 97% / reading 95%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,352 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $130k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.4% in Hamburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.