3869 Princeton Rd · Hamburg, NY 14075

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,097 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1957 7,316 sqft lot $119/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A great opportunity here in a nice neighborhood in Hamburg. Ready to roll up your sleeves and put in some sweat equity? Main floor of home has been updated and could just use some finishing touches. Bedroom on 2nd floor needs drywall repair, and the owner took off and started to replace the addition on the back of the home, but it remains unfinished. Could be a nice sunroom or enclosed patio if you'd like to keep and finish it. A 4th bonus room is above the garage to be used how you wish. Situated on a quiet, dead end street, this cozy home awaits its new owners to bring it to its full potential. Close to Southwestern Blvd for all your shopping, restaurants and other amenities. Easy acces

Key facts

• Unfinished addition
• Updated main floor
• Close to shopping

Tags

• UPDATED MAIN FLOOR
• UNFINISHED ADDITION
• BONUS ROOM ABOVE GARAGE
• QUIET DEAD END STREET
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO ROUTE 5

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: One-story property; Existing (resale) condition
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 62 x 118

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Radiant heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Convertible bedroom; Bedroom on main level; See remarks / other
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.4% in Hamburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#43 in NY, #692 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $130k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,738
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -50.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3827 Sowles Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-2%)	7mo	$250,000	$231	83
5131 Pittsburg St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,028 (-6%)	6mo	$260,000	$253	70
3805 Dartmouth St	0.21mi	3/1.0	990 (-10%)	14mo	$238,000	$240	62
3662 Sowles Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-5%)	17mo	$180,094	$173	55
4033 Park Ave	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,072 (-2%)	19mo	$275,000	$257	54
3664 Princeton Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,188 (+8%)	15mo	$275,000	$231	51
5072 Clarice Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,004 (-8%)	5mo	$206,000	$205	51
3966 Grant Ave	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,133 (+3%)	20mo	$216,300	$191	46
3616 Princeton Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,188 (+8%)	20mo	$290,000	$244	42
4119 Sowles Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+9%)	12mo	$249,900	$208	41
3914 Monroe Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,176 (+7%)	18mo	$305,000	$259	37
3928 Monroe Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	988 (-10%)	18mo	$287,500	$291	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,844
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $43,272
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$333 /mo · $3,996/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $333	+0% $296	+5% $259	+10% $222
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $228	+0% $296	+5% $364	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $361	-0.5pp $329	base $296	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	2d	1	0.40mi
3580 Sowles Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	2d	1	0.69mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,415	$1.92	2d	12	0.79mi
5660 S Park Ave Hamburg, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	2d	1	0.88mi
5400 S Park Ave Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	2d	1	0.89mi
4600 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	2d	13	0.99mi
4779 S Park Ave Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0–2.5	1287	$1,875	$1.46	2d	3	1.44mi
3385 Cedar Valley Way Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	991	$1,950	$1.97	11d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $130,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    statusdays on market $140,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    price $140,000 782-char remark
18. 2026-04-24
    listed $170,000 Active 782-char remark
19. 2019-10-11
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
20. 2019-10-04
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
21. 2019-10-03
    historical
22. 2019-10-01
    listed $65,000 Active
23. 2006-05-04
    soldstatus $69,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,996 · $333/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,996 · $333/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,996
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,706
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$409
• After-tax cash flow: $3,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hamburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #692

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 44,520
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+87.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $130,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-06-02 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-28 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $140,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $170,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-10-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-10-04 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2019-10-03 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2019-10-01 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2006-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $69,350 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,996 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.