3 Waters Edge Dr

Quogue, NY 11959

$4,500,000B

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,928 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $48,681/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,598
• Tax + insurance: −$7,960
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,223
• Net cashflow: $6,899/mo
• Annual: $82,789/yr
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $1,260,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $4.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($83k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($49k rent vs $4.50M).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.96M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.96M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $212k of equity ($31k loan paydown + $181k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#600 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #125 of 755 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Quogue Elementary School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #45 of 2,108 statewide, top 3%, 84 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 75% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Quogue Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $500k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1.26M cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$341k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.