3 Waters Edge Dr · Quogue, NY 11959

$4,500,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,928 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot Est $7420k · 39% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located on a quiet street off Dune Road in prestigious Quogue, this distinctive four-bedroom, four-bath beach house offers an idyllic waterfront lifestyle. Boaters will appreciate the private deep-water dock set within a tranquil cove on Quantuck Bay, providing direct access for endless days on the water. A deeded private right of way to the ocean across the street ensures easy enjoyment of sandy shores and coastal breezes. The home is thoughtfully designed to showcase panoramic bay views from nearly every room. Spacious decks extend from each living space, while the updated kitchen and open living room feature expansive sliding doors that seamlessly connect to the in-ground pool and docksi

Key facts

• Sunlit den
• In-ground pool
• Dockside patio

Tags

• PRIVATE DEEP-WATER DOCK
• DEEDED PRIVATE RIGHT OF WAY
• PANORAMIC BAY VIEWS
• IN-GROUND POOL
• DOCKSIDE PATIO
• SUNLIT DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $4.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($83k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($49k rent vs $4.50M).
• Recommended offer: $3.96M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#600 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 70% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #125 of 755 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Quogue Elementary School (math 87% / reading 92%, grade A+, #45 of 2,108 statewide, top 3%, 84 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 75% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Quogue Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $212k of equity ($31k loan paydown + $181k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1.26M cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$341k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.96M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $500k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,960,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.01%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $7,419,992
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Waters Edge Dr	0.00mi	4/4.0	3,928 (0%)	1mo	$3,800,000	$967	99
17 Dune Rd	0.05mi	5/5.5 (+1)	3,600 (-8%)	19mo	$6,800,000	$1,889	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $1,228,319
• Equity at exit: $2,284,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $3,468,139
• Equity at exit: $3,739,779

Cash invested: $1,260,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11959

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $48,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$5,625 /mo · $67,500/yr
• Insurance: −$1,875
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$10,223
• Net cashflow: $6,899

Break-even live

Break-even rent $39,948

Max offer price $4,500,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,009	-5% $8,454	+0% $6,899	+5% $5,344	+10% $3,789
Rent	-10% $3,053	-5% $4,976	+0% $6,899	+5% $8,822	+10% $10,745
Rate	-1.0pp $9,165	-0.5pp $8,044	base $6,899	+0.5pp $5,733	+1.0pp $4,547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,125,000
• Closing costs: $135,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	4.0	5.5	3991	$50,000	$12.53	25d	1	0.07mi
50 Old Main Rd Quogue, NY	4.0	4.5	3702	$30,000	$8.10	25d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-17
   price $4,500,000
3. 2025-07-14
   listed $5,000,000 Active
4. 2021-12-06
   historical
5. 2021-09-08
   historical
6. 2021-09-08
   historical
7. 2020-10-14
   listed $4,499,500
8. 2020-10-14
   listed $4,499,500 Active
9. 2020-10-14
   listed $4,499,500
10. 2020-10-06
    historical
11. 2020-06-10
    price $4,700,000
12. 2019-11-01
    price $5,200,000
13. 2019-05-01
    listed $5,500,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $584,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$252,070
• − Property taxes: −$67,500
• − Insurance: −$28,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$46,734
• − Management: −$46,734
• − Depreciation: −$130,909
• Taxable income: $12,200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,928
• After-tax cash flow: $79,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624060
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 66.09/100
• National rank: #960
• State rank: #125 of 755 in NY

Livability — Quogue

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #10895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Quogue, NY
• City population: 576
• Population (ZIP): 576

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 23% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 21% Portuguese 7% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Current HPI: 364.8746
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-18.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $4,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-14 Listed $5,000,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-06 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2021-09-08 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2021-09-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-14 Listed $4,499,500 Cincy MLS
• 2020-10-14 Listed $4,499,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-14 Listed $4,499,500 Cincy MLS
• 2020-10-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-06-10 Price Changed $4,700,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-01 Price Changed $5,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-01 Listed $5,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid