3681 Pioneer Trails Dr

Kathleen, FL 33810

$229,000C+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,757/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $574/mo
• Annual: $6,886/yr
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.74%
• DSCR: 1.48
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Griffin Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 379 students, 65% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $229k implies a 584% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,757/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1208% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.