3681 Pioneer Trails Dr · Kathleen, FL 33810

$229,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2021 10,624 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in beautiful North Lakeland, you will find this quarter-acre residential lot. Envision your perfect modular or mobile home nestled here in the established community of Pioneer Trail. Close Proximity to shopping centers and major roads for an easy commute. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. (Buyer must confirm with Zoning that property is suitable for planned use. )

Key facts

• Quarter acre lot
• Cathedral ceilings
• Extra privacy

Tags

• QUARTER ACRE LOT
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• NO HOA
• EXTRA PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total lot size about 0.24 acres
• HOA & community: No association/HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; High-speed internet available; Cable available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Nobility Wayne 5 model); Single-story; Faces west; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Lot located in-county; Asphalt/paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 85 x 125

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Insulated windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $574 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $222k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#752 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Griffin Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 379 students, 65% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,757/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1208% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $229k implies a 584% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.74%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,114
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $43,827
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,695/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $574

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $703	-5% $639	+0% $574	+5% $509	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $356	-5% $465	+0% $574	+5% $683	+10% $792
Rate	-1.0pp $689	-0.5pp $632	base $574	+0.5pp $514	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3230 J and J Manor Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1056	$1,700	$1.61	3d	1	0.81mi
3987 Sunset Lake Dr Lakeland, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$4,500	$2.02	15d	1	1.47mi
1845 Holton Rd Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	1811	$1,983	$1.09	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   remarks 681-char remark
2. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $229,000 Pending 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $239,000
8. 2026-04-21
   listed $245,000 Active
9. 2020-11-08
   soldstatus $33,500 Sold 367-char remark

   Show marketing remark (367 chars)

   Located in beautiful North Lakeland, you will find this quarter-acre residential lot. Envision your perfect modular or mobile home nestled here in the established community of Pioneer Trail. Close Proximity to shopping centers and major roads for an easy commute. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. (Buyer must confirm with Zoning that property is suitable for planned use. )

10. 2020-07-21
    status Pending 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Located in beautiful North Lakeland, you will find this quarter-acre residential lot. Envision your perfect modular or mobile home nestled here in the established community of Pioneer Trail. Close Proximity to shopping centers and major roads for an easy commute. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. (Buyer must confirm with Zoning that property is suitable for planned use. )

11. 2020-05-29
    price $34,700 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Located in beautiful North Lakeland, you will find this quarter-acre residential lot. Envision your perfect modular or mobile home nestled here in the established community of Pioneer Trail. Close Proximity to shopping centers and major roads for an easy commute. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. (Buyer must confirm with Zoning that property is suitable for planned use. )

12. 2020-04-13
    listed $31,300 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (367 chars)

    Located in beautiful North Lakeland, you will find this quarter-acre residential lot. Envision your perfect modular or mobile home nestled here in the established community of Pioneer Trail. Close Proximity to shopping centers and major roads for an easy commute. OWNER FINANCING AVAILABLE. (Buyer must confirm with Zoning that property is suitable for planned use. )

13. 2005-09-29
    soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,695 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,695 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,695
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,647
• − Management: −$2,647
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $3,462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$831
• After-tax cash flow: $6,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kathleen

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #752
• US rank: #16450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 52,734
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+44.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-08 Sold (MLS) $33,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-29 Price Changed $34,700 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-13 Listed $31,300 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,695 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.