2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,200 sqft ·
Built 1963
· Manufactured
· Active
· 54 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,940/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,363
Tax + insurance
−$433
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$618
Net cashflow
$527/mo
Annual
$6,323/yr
Cap rate
8.73%
Cash-on-cash
8.69%
DSCR
1.39
1% rule
1.13%
Cash to close
$72,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $252k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#331 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A-, commute B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, cost of living F.
Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.9% in Santa Paula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4B0R2C217EDSDQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29