19827 Williamsville Rd

Stockbridge, MI 48137

$289,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $91/mo
• Annual: $1,089/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (14.2% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $249k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#395 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Stockbridge Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 540 in MI (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #744 of 1,397 statewide, top 57%, 322 students, 44% FRL); Stockbridge Jrsr High School (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #402 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 547 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $290k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.4% in Stockbridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.