19827 Williamsville Rd · Stockbridge, MI 48137

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2002 3.78 ac lot Est $280k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

Key facts

• 3.78 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.4% in Stockbridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#395 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Stockbridge Community Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 540 in MI (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #744 of 1,397 statewide, top 57%, 322 students, 44% FRL); Stockbridge Jrsr High School (math 27% / reading 39%, grade F, #402 of 713 statewide, top 56%, 547 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $290k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $248,794 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,792
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19827 Williamsville Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,072 (0%)	0mo	$280,000	$261	100
20320 Kaiser Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,016 (-5%)	5mo	$135,000	$133	63
5624 San Juan Ct Ct	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,096 (+2%)	24mo	$345,000	$315	54
19999 Williamsville Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (+15%)	14mo	$207,000	$168	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-41,236
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-28,630
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48137

• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,804/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,373

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $255	-5% $173	+0% $91	+5% $9	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-7	+0% $91	+5% $189	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $165	base $91	+0.5pp $16	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

2. 2026-04-13
   status Pending 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

4. 2026-04-06
   status Active 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

5. 2026-04-06
   status Active 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

6. 2026-04-06
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

7. 2026-04-06
   listed $289,900 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

8. 2026-04-06
   historical 809-char remark

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

9. 2026-04-06
   listed $289,900

   Show marketing remark (809 chars)

   Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

10. 2026-04-06
    historical

    Show marketing remark (809 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful, tree-lined setting in Gregory, this charming 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort, privacy, and potential. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the quiet country feel, spacious yard, and inviting curb appeal. Inside, the home features a functional layout with a bright kitchen and dining area that flows effortlessly to the backyard, ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The generously sized bedrooms and full basement provide plenty of space for storage, hobbies, or future finishing to add value. Whether you're looking for a quiet place to call home or an opportunity to personalize and build equity, this property delivers--with room to grow both inside and out, all while being conveniently located near local amenities and major roadways.

11. 2014-11-14
    soldstatus $160,000
12. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus $160,000
13. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus $160,000
14. 2014-10-22
    soldstatus $160,000
15. 2014-10-20
    historical
16. 2014-10-20
    historical
17. 2014-08-23
    listed $169,000
18. 2014-08-23
    listed $169,000
19. 2014-08-23
    listed $169,000
20. 2002-01-15
    soldstatus $45,000
21. 2002-01-15
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,634 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$830/yr (+$69/mo · 29.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,804
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$3,847
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$923
• After-tax cash flow: $2,013/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockbridge Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $59,009
• Composite: 30.35/100
• National rank: #6261
• State rank: #277 of 540 in MI

Livability — Stockbridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #395
• US rank: #10715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,293

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Italian 8% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.21%
• Current HPI: 198.5923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+544.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-13 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $289,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $289,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-22 Sold (MLS) $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-22 Sold (MLS) $160,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-10-22 Sold (MLS) $160,000 AAMLS
• 2014-10-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-10-20 Delisted — AAMLS
• 2014-08-23 Listed $169,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-08-23 Listed $169,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-08-23 Listed $169,000 AAMLS
• 2002-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,804 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.