353 Gray Rd

South Fallsburg, NY 12779

$60,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 748 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $612/mo
• Annual: $7,348/yr
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.74%
• DSCR: 2.95
• 1% rule: 2.17%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,128 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.