353 Gray Rd · South Fallsburg, NY 12779

$60,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 748 sqft · Other public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1980 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

For sale 1 Story bungalow in Catskill Mountains, maintenance $3,362 yr includes: cooking gas, electric & AC, 350 sq ft, patio 350 sq ft, there is a community pool, lake, bungalow has a big patio/deck, very beautiful nice community in the woods with a fresh air, great place to get away from the city, minutes away to stores, there is a community club that great to go socialize and make friends, you can do BBQ on the patio or at the designated places, maintenance includes: cleaning of the pool, roads and snow, it's one of the best bungalows in the community, it's a corner unit. The house is sold with furniture: AC, beds, dressers, sofa, outside furniture, grill, etc. The house is after f

Key facts

• Corner unit
• Big patio
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• BIG PATIO
• FULL COMPLETE RENOVATION
• CORNER UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Handicap access available; Zoning: R5
• Financial info: Financing: Cash

Exterior

• Parking: Community drive parking; 6+ parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric (110V and 220V); Hot water: Electric; Sewer/power details not specified
• Home design: Detached residential building; Pitched roof; Siding exterior; Other foundation; Building footprint approximately 1,000; Building dimensions about 50.00 x 20.00
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Front yard; Back yard; Side yard; Waterfront present

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove; Kitchen/Living combo (first floor)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the first floor; Master bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric hot water; No heating fuel specified; Heat delivery: Other; 110V and 220V electric
• Interior features: Microwave; Porch; Refrigerator; Stove; Terrace
• Laundry & utility: 1 AC unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $612 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,128 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $59,100 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.74%
• DSCR: 2.95
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.27×
• Total profit: $71,698
• Equity at exit: $54,053

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.74×
• Total profit: $180,509
• Equity at exit: $116,567

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12779

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $633	+0% $612	+5% $592	+10% $571
Rent	-10% $510	-5% $561	+0% $612	+5% $664	+10% $715
Rate	-1.0pp $643	-0.5pp $628	base $612	+0.5pp $597	+1.0pp $581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Davos Pointe Unit A-4 Woodridge, NY	1.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	14d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $60,000 Active
17. 2022-05-25
    price $159,900
18. 2022-03-21
    listed $195,900 Active
19. 2021-03-05
    listed $195,900 Active
20. 2020-07-01
    listed $209,000
21. 2019-05-13
    listed $209,000
22. 2019-03-01
    listed $25,000
23. 2017-10-04
    listed $200,000
24. 2017-07-14
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,248
• − Management: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $6,798
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,631
• After-tax cash flow: $5,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,513
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7805
• State rank: #583 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Fallsburg

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1128
• US rank: #23287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,207
• Population (ZIP): 2,207

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 26% Black 16% Two or more races 13% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Scotch-Irish 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.12%
• Current HPI: 420.7227
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+50.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $60,000 BNYMLS
• 2022-05-25 Price Changed $159,900 HVCRMLS
• 2022-03-21 Listed $195,900 HVCRMLS
• 2021-03-05 Listed $195,900 HVCRMLS
• 2020-07-01 Listed $209,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-05-13 Listed $209,000 HVCRMLS
• 2019-03-01 Listed $25,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-10-04 Listed $200,000 HVCRMLS
• 2017-07-14 Listed $39,900 HVCRMLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $27,968 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.