8013 Mandan Rd #301

Greenbelt, MD 20770

$167,000D

2 bd · None ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1977 · Condo · Pending · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,369/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$749
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-383/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $46,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath condo listed at $167k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (2.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#107 in MD, #4,259 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenbelt Elementary (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #332 of 860 statewide, top 39%, 573 students, 63% FRL); Greenbelt Middle (math 11% / reading 32%, grade F, #132 of 225 statewide, top 59%, 1,342 students, 76% FRL); Eleanor Roosevelt High (math 61% / reading 74%, grade B, #48 of 222 statewide, top 22%, 2,526 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Prince George'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Greenbelt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?