8013 Mandan Rd #301 · Greenbelt, MD 20770

$167,000

2 bd · None ba · 1,188 sqft · Condo · 184 Days on market

Built 1977 $749/mo HOA · 32% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Greenbriar Condo Phase I—where comfort, convenience, and community come together! This spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo! It includes a versatile den that can be used as a home office, reading nook, or creative space. Located in the sought-after Roosevelt school district and just minutes from the Baltimore-Washington Parkway, this home offers the perfect blend of accessibility and tranquility. Enjoy light-filled rooms with large windows, plush carpeting in both bedrooms, and an inviting layout that flows seamlessly to the private balcony—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This is a rare TOP floor unit that offers a primary suite bathroom! The beautifully landscaped

Key facts

• $749 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/?-bath condo listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-383/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (2.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Greenbelt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#107 in MD, #4,259 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F.
• Prince George'S County Public Schools (suburban): math 8% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #21 of 24 in MD (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Greenbelt Elementary (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #332 of 860 statewide, top 39%, 573 students, 63% FRL); Greenbelt Middle (math 11% / reading 32%, grade F, #132 of 225 statewide, top 59%, 1,342 students, 76% FRL); Eleanor Roosevelt High (math 61% / reading 74%, grade B, #48 of 222 statewide, top 22%, 2,526 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 16% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Prince George'S County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,481 units permitted in Prince George's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George's County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-35,538
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-58,372
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20770

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$209 /mo · $2,505/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$749
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,409

Max offer price $162,386

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $26	+0% $-32	+5% $-90	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-125	+0% $-32	+5% $62	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $11	base $-32	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8007 Mandan Rd Unit T2 Greenbelt, MD	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,500	$1.79	45d	1	0.06mi
8009 Mandan Rd #303 Greenbelt, MD	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,450	$1.73	45d	1	0.06mi
8011 Mandan Rd #303 Greenbelt, MD	3.0	2.0	1188	$2,495	$2.10	20d	1	0.06mi
7927 Mandan Rd Apt 301 Greenbelt, MD	2.0	2.0	1195	$2,600	$2.18	0d	1	0.15mi
7768 Mandan Rd Greenbelt, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,550	$1.93	21d	1	0.42mi
7716 Hanover Pkwy Apt T4 Greenbelt, MD	2.0	1.0	922	$2,000	$2.17	45d	1	0.57mi
9 Parkway Greenbelt, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	812	$2,041	$2.51	5d	21	0.70mi
32 Crescent Rd Greenbelt, MD	1.0	1.0	630	$1,538	$2.44	12d	4	0.73mi
8501 Greenbelt Rd Greenbelt, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	933	$1,976	$2.12	45d	1	0.95mi
8118 Bird Ln Greenbelt, MD	3.0	2.5	1393	$2,650	$1.90	20d	1	0.96mi
7212 Lost Spring Ct Lanham, MD	3.0	2.5	1272	$2,350	$1.85	26d	1	0.98mi
157 Westway Greenbelt, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1191	$2,110	$1.77	1d	33	1.00mi
7913 Brooks Pl Greenbelt, MD	3.0	2.5	1374	$3,000	$2.18	26d	1	1.05mi
8671 Greenbelt Rd #101 Greenbelt, MD	3.0	1.0	1072	$2,099	$1.96	45d	1	1.07mi
8650 Brae Brooke Dr Lanham, MD	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,600	$2.00	7d	1	1.13mi
8688 Brae Brooke Dr Lanham, MD	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,500	$1.78	45d	1	1.13mi
8014 Lakecrest Dr Greenbelt, MD	3.0	2.5	1326	$2,500	$1.89	46d	1	1.32mi
7232 Hanover Pkwy Greenbelt, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	841	$2,032	$2.42	45d	1	1.34mi
3 Lakecrest Cir Greenbelt, MD	3.0	3.0	1170	$3,400	$2.91	45d	1	1.35mi
6934 Hanover Pkwy #402 Greenbelt, MD	1.0	1.0	1064	$1,800	$1.69	45d	1	1.39mi
6702 Lake Park Dr Greenbelt, MD	2.0	2.0	1274	$2,250	$1.77	45d	1	1.40mi
8150 Lakecrest Dr Greenbelt, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	725	$2,200	$3.03	1d	14	1.44mi
6630 Lake Park Dr Unit 3B Greenbelt, MD	2.0	2.0	1244	$2,450	$1.97	14d	1	1.46mi
6998 Hanover Pkwy #3 Greenbelt, MD	1.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	45d	1	1.47mi
6998 Hanover Pkwy #302 Greenbelt, MD	2.0	2.0	994	$2,175	$2.19	14d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $749 · $8,988/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-07
   price $167,000
3. 2025-12-06
   price $175,000
4. 2025-11-07
   price $200,000
5. 2025-10-21
   status Active
6. 2025-10-13
   historical
7. 2025-10-07
   listed $210,000 Active
8. 2025-09-04
   historical $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,505
• − Insurance: −$835
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,274
• − Management: −$2,274
• − HOA: −$8,988
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$2,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$640
• After-tax cash flow: $257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400510
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $73,967
• Composite: 16.82/100
• National rank: #9151
• State rank: #21 of 24 in MD

Livability — Greenbelt

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #4259

Category grades

Amenities C Commute B+ Cost of living C Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greenbelt, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• City population: 28,384
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,384
• Household income: $84,096
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1890.0

Population outlook (Prince George's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,005,426 people
• By 2030: 1,048,416 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,123,425 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,183,220 · +17.7%
• By 2075: 1,306,202 · +29.9%
• By 2100: 1,408,179 · +40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 17% Asian 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George's

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+75.2) · D 86.3% · R 11.2% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 75.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+75.2 2020: D+80.5 2016: D+81.0 2012: D+80.9 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.02%
• Current HPI: 251.3114
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $167,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-21 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-04 Coming Soon $210,000 BRIGHT MLS