809 Glen Hollow Dr

The Woodlands, TX 77385

$255,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,268/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$823
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-368/mo
• Annual: $-4,419/yr
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (11.1% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.