809 Glen Hollow Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77385

$255,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1970 0.28 ac lot $111/sqft · 14% below area Est $298k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car attached garage, with approximately 2,306 sq ft of living space. Recent improvements include fresh interior paint, a remodeled kitchen with new stove and dishwasher, updated fixtures, and ceiling fans. Granite countertops are featured in the kitchen, primary bath, and secondary bath. Tile flooring throughout provides durability and easy maintenance. The spacious backyard includes storage sheds, offering additional functionality and outdoor space to enjoy. Located within the highly regarded Conroe ISD, the community also offers amenities such as playgrounds, tennis courts, basketball courts, and picnic areas.

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Updated kitchen
• Tile flooring

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE FLOORING
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-368 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (25.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,947 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,596
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -14.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 Brook Forest Ct	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,255 (-2%)	1mo	$139,900	$62	91
711 Glen Haven Dr	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,192 (-5%)	5mo	$340,000	$155	77
816 Glen Hollow Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,650 (+15%)	1mo	$129,900	$49	72
105 Glenmora Ct	0.28mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,212 (-4%)	7mo	$320,000	$145	67
126 W Drifting Shadows Cir	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+3%)	4mo	$299,900	$126	63
155 W Drifting Shadows Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,282 (-1%)	4mo	$369,000	$162	62
413 Brook Hollow Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,110 (-8%)	6mo	$189,000	$90	52
58 N Delta Mill Cir	0.75mi	4/2.0	2,154 (-7%)	3mo	$380,000	$176	51
7 Ashworth Ct	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,645 (+15%)	2mo	$425,000	$161	48
9921 Kingfisher Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,096 (-9%)	4mo	$248,000	$118	46
16734 Warbler Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,096 (-9%)	4mo	$255,000	$122	44
11 Snow Woods Ct	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,602 (+13%)	7mo	$429,000	$165	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-62,471
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-75,004
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,479/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,734

Max offer price $189,947

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-224	-5% $-296	+0% $-368	+5% $-440	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-547	-5% $-458	+0% $-368	+5% $-279	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-303	base $-368	+0.5pp $-434	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
178 Ramwind Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1993	$2,100	$1.05	25d	1	0.83mi
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,040	$0.95	0d	1	0.96mi
9931 Chimney Swift Ln Conroe, TX	5.0	3.0	3068	$2,250	$0.73	15d	1	1.05mi
9952 Swallow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	3136	$2,180	$0.70	18d	1	1.06mi
15596 Interstate 45 Unit 15629 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,720	$1.09	44d	1	1.20mi
15596 Interstate 45 S Conroe, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1356	$2,130	$1.57	0d	16	1.24mi
15596 Interstate 45 S Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,669	$1.06	0d	1	1.24mi
15596 Interstate 45 S Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,720	$1.09	13d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $255,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $255,000 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Beautifully updated one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car attached garage, with approximately 2,306 sq ft of living space. Recent improvements include fresh interior paint, a remodeled kitchen with new stove and dishwasher, updated fixtures, and ceiling fans. Granite countertops are featured in the kitchen, primary bath, and secondary bath. Tile flooring throughout provides durability and easy maintenance. The spacious backyard includes storage sheds, offering additional functionality and outdoor space to enjoy. Located within the highly regarded Conroe ISD, the community also offers amenities such as playgrounds, tennis courts, basketball courts, and picnic areas.

16. 2026-03-25
    listed $270,000 Active 700-char remark

    Show marketing remark (700 chars)

    Beautifully updated one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car attached garage, with approximately 2,306 sq ft of living space. Recent improvements include fresh interior paint, a remodeled kitchen with new stove and dishwasher, updated fixtures, and ceiling fans. Granite countertops are featured in the kitchen, primary bath, and secondary bath. Tile flooring throughout provides durability and easy maintenance. The spacious backyard includes storage sheds, offering additional functionality and outdoor space to enjoy. Located within the highly regarded Conroe ISD, the community also offers amenities such as playgrounds, tennis courts, basketball courts, and picnic areas.

17. 2024-12-24
    historical $1,895
18. 2024-12-24
    historical
19. 2024-12-12
    listed $250,000 Active
20. 2024-11-23
    price $1,895
21. 2024-10-27
    price $1,995
22. 2024-10-17
    price $2,275
23. 2024-10-04
    listed $2,395
24. 2024-09-30
    historical $2,400
25. 2024-09-27
    listed $2,400
26. 2021-06-02
    soldstatus
27. 2021-06-01
    soldstatus Sold
28. 2021-04-26
    status Pending
29. 2021-04-17
    status Active
30. 2021-04-14
    status Pending
31. 2021-03-25
    listed $190,000 Active
32. 2019-10-08
    historical
33. 2019-08-27
    price $189,000
34. 2019-07-19
    price $169,000
35. 2019-06-25
    price $179,000
36. 2019-05-15
    price $189,000
37. 2019-04-29
    price $199,000
38. 2019-04-17
    listed $220,000 Active
39. 2018-01-30
    soldstatus
40. 2018-01-29
    soldstatus
41. 2006-12-06
    soldstatus
42. 2006-09-19
    historical
43. 2006-07-31
    listed $126,900
44. 2006-07-05
    historical
45. 2006-05-30
    listed $139,900
46. 2006-05-29
    historical
47. 2006-05-26
    historical
48. 2006-05-25
    listed $139,900
49. 2006-02-06
    listed $139,900
50. 2003-01-25
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,479 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,187/yr (+$99/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,479
• − Insurance: −$6,394
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$8,713
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,091
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+82.3% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-24 Rental Removed $1,895 HARMLS
• 2024-12-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-23 Price Changed $1,895 HARMLS
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $1,995 HARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $2,275 HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed for Rent $2,395 HARMLS
• 2024-09-30 Rental Removed $2,400 HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed for Rent $2,400 HARMLS
• 2021-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-03-25 Listed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2019-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-27 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2019-07-19 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-25 Price Changed $179,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-15 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-29 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2019-04-17 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2018-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-09-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-07-31 Listed $126,900 HARMLS
• 2006-07-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-30 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2006-05-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-05-25 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2006-02-06 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2003-01-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-08-04 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2001-10-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2001-05-01 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2001-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,479 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.