22465 E 850th Rd

Humansville, MO 65674

$274,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,311/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-647/mo
• Annual: $-7,761/yr
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.05%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (41.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (52.3% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (52.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#209 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Humansville R-IV (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #247 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.