22465 E 850th Rd · Humansville, MO 65674

$274,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2009 5.00 ac lot $140/sqft · 31% below area Est $400k · 31% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this like-new 4 bed, 2 bath manufactured home with a jaw dropping master suite! Situated on on 5 private acres, a greenhouse, seasonal creek, all on a quiet dead-end road--perfect for young families and homesteaders. Spacious open floorplan with an electric & Propane fireplaces, and all appliances included! Additional bonuses are 2X6 exterior walls, tilt in windows, and full concrete slab under the home. This is a very well-maintained and move-in ready home that deserves a spot on your must see list!!

Key facts

• Master suite
• Private acres
• Seasonal creek

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• PRIVATE ACRES
• GREENHOUSE
• SEASONAL CREEK
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• OPEN FLOORPLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (41.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (52.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (52.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#209 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Humansville R-IV (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #247 of 324 in MO (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,131 (52.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.05%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 17.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,900
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -31.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $38,833
• Equity at exit: $173,631

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $146,041
• Equity at exit: $315,579

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65674

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $721/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $160,648

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,900 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,900 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,900 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    price $274,900 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Take a look at this like-new 4 bed, 2 bath manufactured home with a jaw dropping master suite! Situated on on 5 private acres, a greenhouse, seasonal creek, all on a quiet dead-end road--perfect for young families and homesteaders. Spacious open floorplan with an electric & Propane fireplaces, and all appliances included! Additional bonuses are 2X6 exterior walls, tilt in windows, and full concrete slab under the home. This is a very well-maintained and move-in ready home that deserves a spot on your must see list!!

17. 2026-02-27
    listed $289,900 Active 527-char remark

    Show marketing remark (527 chars)

    Take a look at this like-new 4 bed, 2 bath manufactured home with a jaw dropping master suite! Situated on on 5 private acres, a greenhouse, seasonal creek, all on a quiet dead-end road--perfect for young families and homesteaders. Spacious open floorplan with an electric & Propane fireplaces, and all appliances included! Additional bonuses are 2X6 exterior walls, tilt in windows, and full concrete slab under the home. This is a very well-maintained and move-in ready home that deserves a spot on your must see list!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,667 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,946/yr (+$162/mo · 269.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$721
• − Insurance: −$2,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$13,071
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,137
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humansville R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2915300
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,710
• Composite: 27.32/100
• National rank: #6994
• State rank: #247 of 324 in MO

Livability — Humansville

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #10507

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,760

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% German 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.05%
• Current HPI: 322.9732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $274,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-27 Listed $289,900 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $721 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.