104 S Willow St

Effingham, IL 62401

$129,999D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 303 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-124/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-124/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (9.0% below list).
• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#140 in IL, #2,564 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Effingham CUSD 40 (town): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #387 of 620 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Effingham County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $130k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Effingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.