104 S Willow St · Effingham, IL 62401

$129,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 303 Days on market

Built 1920 8,276 sqft lot $100/sqft · 8% above area Est $185k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 1 Bath home close to downtown Effingham! Great room is massive with large bay window overlooking the backyard. Large rooms throughout with the potential of an additional 4th bedroom. Other extra features include an enclosed front porch, 2.5 detached garage, and back patio. Alley access to the garage with additional off street parking on Willow. All kitchen appliances stay. Come take a look before someone else does!

Key facts

• Alley access
• Off street parking
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• BACK PATIO
• ALLEY ACCESS
• OFF STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-124/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Effingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#140 in IL, #2,564 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F.
• Effingham CUSD 40 (town): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #387 of 620 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 303 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $130k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $114,399 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 303 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,245
• List price: $129,999
• Delta: -29.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
915 E Jefferson Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (+4%)	4mo	$106,023	$79	63
808 E Gordon Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,364 (+5%)	22mo	$150,000	$110	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-21,679
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-19,537
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62401

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,197

Max offer price $128,169

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $26	+0% $-10	+5% $-47	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-57	+0% $-10	+5% $36	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $23	base $-10	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,999 Active 303 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,999 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,999 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,999 Active 291 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,999 Active 290 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,999 Active 289 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,999 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,999 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,999 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 282 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    price $136,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3 Bedroom 1 Bath home close to downtown Effingham! Great room is massive with large bay window overlooking the backyard. Large rooms throughout with the potential of an additional 4th bedroom. Other extra features include an enclosed front porch, 2.5 detached garage, and back patio. Alley access to the garage with additional off street parking on Willow. All kitchen appliances stay. Come take a look before someone else does!

18. 2026-02-20
    price $139,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3 Bedroom 1 Bath home close to downtown Effingham! Great room is massive with large bay window overlooking the backyard. Large rooms throughout with the potential of an additional 4th bedroom. Other extra features include an enclosed front porch, 2.5 detached garage, and back patio. Alley access to the garage with additional off street parking on Willow. All kitchen appliances stay. Come take a look before someone else does!

19. 2026-01-15
    price $142,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3 Bedroom 1 Bath home close to downtown Effingham! Great room is massive with large bay window overlooking the backyard. Large rooms throughout with the potential of an additional 4th bedroom. Other extra features include an enclosed front porch, 2.5 detached garage, and back patio. Alley access to the garage with additional off street parking on Willow. All kitchen appliances stay. Come take a look before someone else does!

20. 2025-10-07
    price $145,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3 Bedroom 1 Bath home close to downtown Effingham! Great room is massive with large bay window overlooking the backyard. Large rooms throughout with the potential of an additional 4th bedroom. Other extra features include an enclosed front porch, 2.5 detached garage, and back patio. Alley access to the garage with additional off street parking on Willow. All kitchen appliances stay. Come take a look before someone else does!

21. 2025-09-09
    price $149,999 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3 Bedroom 1 Bath home close to downtown Effingham! Great room is massive with large bay window overlooking the backyard. Large rooms throughout with the potential of an additional 4th bedroom. Other extra features include an enclosed front porch, 2.5 detached garage, and back patio. Alley access to the garage with additional off street parking on Willow. All kitchen appliances stay. Come take a look before someone else does!

22. 2025-08-21
    listed $154,999 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    3 Bedroom 1 Bath home close to downtown Effingham! Great room is massive with large bay window overlooking the backyard. Large rooms throughout with the potential of an additional 4th bedroom. Other extra features include an enclosed front porch, 2.5 detached garage, and back patio. Alley access to the garage with additional off street parking on Willow. All kitchen appliances stay. Come take a look before someone else does!

23. 2015-10-01
    soldstatus $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,512 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,732 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,297
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$551
• After-tax cash flow: $427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham CUSD 40
• NCES district ID: 1713560
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,021
• Composite: 19.35/100
• National rank: #8789
• State rank: #387 of 620 in IL

Livability — Effingham

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #2564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Effingham, IL
• City population: 19,371
• Population (ZIP): 19,371

Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,179 people
• By 2030: 33,648 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 32,066 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 29,813 · -12.8%
• By 2075: 24,101 · -29.5%
• By 2100: 17,174 · -49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.0% · R 79.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+59.2 2016: R+60.5 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.52%
• Current HPI: 167.267
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+86.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $136,999 CIBR
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $139,999 CIBR
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $142,999 CIBR
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $145,999 CIBR
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $149,999 CIBR
• 2025-08-21 Listed $154,999 CIBR
• 2015-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,512 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.