43 Mandevilla Ln

Miramar Beach, FL 32550

$425,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,022/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$128
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-435/mo
• Annual: $-5,221/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (28.9% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Van R. Butler Elementary School (math 77% / reading 69%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 1,013 students, 30% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 938 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.1% in Miramar Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.