43 Mandevilla Ln · Miramar Beach, FL 32550

$425,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2000 9,583 sqft lot Est $707k · 40% under $128/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Public beach access
• Tennis courts

Tags

• PUBLIC BEACH ACCESS
• GULF-FRONT WALKING AREAS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• RESORT-STYLE SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• COMMUNITY WATER ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association membership with fees covering land recreation and recreational facilities; Community amenities include pool, tennis courts, playground, picnic area, pavilion/gazebo, BBQ pit/grill, and waterfront access; Subdivision: Garden Homes At Bayside

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Driveway with about 3 spaces; Garage door opener; Oversized parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service; Natural gas available; Phone service
• Home design: Ranch-style single-story home; Built in 2000; Faces bay (view)
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Lawn pump; Bay view; Dead-end street; Within 1/2 mile to water; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first level); Master bedroom on the first level with double vanity, shower-only, and tile finishes
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with double vanity, shower only, tile
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central gas air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Newly painted; Pantry; Washer/dryer hookup; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.1% in Miramar Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#569 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Van R. Butler Elementary School (math 77% / reading 69%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 1,013 students, 30% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 48% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 938 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $302,195 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $707,400
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Mandevilla Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+4%)	2mo	$380,000	$278	90
53 Mandevilla Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-8%)	2mo	$425,000	$351	85
82 Mandevilla Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,197 (-9%)	12mo	$395,000	$330	74
176 Cove Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,236 (-6%)	3mo	$785,000	$635	64
183 Cove Dr	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,238 (-6%)	3mo	$668,000	$540	62
101 Bay Haven Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+14%)	6mo	$395,000	$265	61
171 Cove Dr	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,247 (-5%)	12mo	$850,000	$682	58
195 Audubon Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,267 (-3%)	16mo	$720,000	$568	54
83 Windancer Ln	0.73mi	3/3.0	1,486 (+13%)	1mo	$1,320,000	$888	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-10,423
• Equity at exit: $155,050

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $46,701
• Equity at exit: $213,982

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32550

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 938
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,022 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,665/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$128
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,573

Max offer price $348,145

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-194	-5% $-315	+0% $-435	+5% $-555	+10% $-676
Rent	-10% $-674	-5% $-554	+0% $-435	+5% $-316	+10% $-196
Rate	-1.0pp $-221	-0.5pp $-327	base $-435	+0.5pp $-545	+1.0pp $-657

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
437 S Shore Dr Miramar Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1713	$3,150	$1.84	14d	1	0.04mi
62 Legion Park Loop Miramar Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,100	$2.38	21d	1	0.22mi
107 Bay Tree Dr Miramar Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1716	$3,100	$1.81	14d	1	0.23mi
320 Scenic Gulf Dr #121 Miramar Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,295	$2.29	14d	1	0.61mi
112 Seascape Dr Unit 1447109P Miramar Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	968	$1,947	$2.01	21d	1	0.92mi
125 Sunset Bay Unit 1447108P Miramar Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1108	$2,767	$2.50	14d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $128 · $1,536/yr

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $425,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $425,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $425,000 Active
18. 2022-09-19
    soldstatus $435,000 Sold 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

19. 2022-09-19
    soldstatus $435,000 Sold 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

20. 2022-09-19
    soldstatus $435,000 Sold 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

21. 2022-07-18
    status Pending 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

22. 2022-07-18
    status Pending 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

23. 2022-07-18
    status Pending 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

24. 2022-07-04
    listed $515,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in gorgeous Bayfront community. Home is located on a corner lot in the coveted community, featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

25. 2022-06-22
    listed $515,000 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

26. 2022-06-22
    listed $515,000 Active 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3/2 home in bayfront community featuring tons of amenities, including a dock to take the kids fishing! Enjoy the good life, just minutes from Silver Sands, beaches, and restaurants galore! Schedule your showing today!

27. 2018-03-23
    soldstatus $235,000
28. 2018-03-23
    soldstatus $235,000
29. 2018-02-13
    listed $235,000
30. 2016-08-15
    soldstatus $222,500
31. 2016-08-12
    soldstatus $222,500
32. 2016-08-12
    soldstatus $222,500
33. 2016-03-30
    listed $225,000
34. 2015-09-08
    soldstatus $200,000
35. 2015-09-08
    soldstatus $200,000
36. 2015-09-04
    soldstatus $200,000
37. 2014-11-01
    listed $206,500
38. 2014-10-31
    historical
39. 2014-06-05
    listed $215,000
40. 2014-06-05
    listed $215,000
41. 2003-12-23
    soldstatus $150,000
42. 2000-06-06
    listed $133,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,528 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$862/yr (+$72/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$2,665
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,901
• − Management: −$2,901
• − HOA: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$12,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,080
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miramar Beach

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #569
• US rank: #10855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miramar Beach, FL
• County: Walton County · 70,839 people
• City population: 8,486
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,486
• Household income: $101,250
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 77.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 247.7567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+217.4% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $425,000 ECAR
• 2022-09-19 Sold (MLS) $435,000 ECAR
• 2022-09-19 Sold (MLS) $435,000 PARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Sold (MLS) $435,000 NAMLS
• 2022-07-18 Pending — PARMLS
• 2022-07-18 Pending — ECAR
• 2022-07-18 Pending — NAMLS
• 2022-07-04 Listed $515,000 PARMLS
• 2022-06-22 Listed $515,000 ECAR
• 2022-06-22 Listed $515,000 NAMLS
• 2018-03-23 Sold (MLS) $235,000 ECAR
• 2018-03-23 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NAMLS
• 2018-02-13 Listed $235,000 NAMLS
• 2016-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records
• 2016-08-12 Sold (MLS) $222,500 NAMLS
• 2016-08-12 Sold (MLS) $222,500 ECAR
• 2016-03-30 Listed $225,000 NAMLS
• 2015-09-08 Sold (MLS) $200,000 NAMLS
• 2015-09-08 Sold (MLS) $200,000 ECAR
• 2015-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-01 Listed $206,500 NAMLS
• 2014-10-31 Listing Removed — NAMLS
• 2014-06-05 Listed $215,000 ECAR
• 2014-06-05 Listed $215,000 NAMLS
• 2003-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2000-06-06 Listed $133,900 ECAR

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,665 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.