37542 Pinata Ave

Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$116,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Pending · 389 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,559/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$613
• Tax + insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$142
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $298/mo
• Annual: $3,580/yr
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.94%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $32,732

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $808 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.