37542 Pinata Ave · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$116,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Manufactured public records · 389 Days on market

Built 1987 4,312 sqft lot Est $108k · 9% over $142/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This mobile home has a great layout that feels larger than the sq footage states. Nice front porch area. Enter in through the kitchen and notice the dining room to the right. There is a nice size living room with sliders to the porch area, which would make a great relaxing area or to entertain friends. The Master has a walk-in closet and bathroom with shower. 2nd bedroom has great space and closet space. 2nd Bathroom is large. Yes, this home needs some work but the price you cannot beat!!!! Carport area and storage where washer and dryer are. Floors are all solid, but home will need to be cleaned out. Seller does not know age of roof or AC. This park is a very active 55+ gated community. There is a beautiful clubhouse and shuffleboard and let's not forget the heated pool.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW ROOF
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• LIBRARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $117k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $808 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,872 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.93%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,712
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37843 Barcelona Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0	840 (+3%)	3mo	$99,000	$118	79
7117 EL Rancho Way #367	0.12mi	2/2.0	896 (+10%)	4mo	$118,000	$132	75
7133 EL Matador St	0.22mi	2/2.0	864 (+6%)	11mo	$79,000	$91	71
7045 EL Dewitt St	0.24mi	2/2.0	732 (-10%)	12mo	$55,000	$75	61
37826 Daughtery Rd	0.28mi	2/2.0	720 (-12%)	11mo	$126,500	$176	58
7240 Ottley St	0.69mi	3/2.5 (+1)	796 (-2%)	11mo	$150,000	$188	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,422
• Equity at exit: $17,430

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,356
• Equity at exit: $10,107

Cash invested: $32,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$613
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,553/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $116,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,225
• Closing costs: $3,507
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.25mi
38112 Townview Ave Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	0.57mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	24d	1	0.78mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	2d	142	0.81mi
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,964	$1.82	2d	34	0.81mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	0.89mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	0.94mi
38485 County Road 54 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	24d	1	1.03mi
6052 10th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	644	$1,200	$1.86	24d	1	1.26mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.31mi
38748 Calumet Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	5d	1	1.39mi
38010 14th Ave Apt 3 Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	537	$1,195	$2.23	24d	1	1.40mi
5611 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,095	$1.82	17d	1	1.49mi
38647 Rose Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	814	$1,350	$1.66	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-12
   price $116,900
3. 2025-10-07
   price $119,900
4. 2025-09-17
   price $124,900
5. 2025-07-24
   price $129,900
6. 2025-05-23
   status Active
7. 2025-05-23
   price $139,800
8. 2025-03-17
   listed $139,900 Active
9. 2024-09-23
   soldstatus $78,000 Closed 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   This mobile home has a great layout that feels larger than the sq footage states. Nice front porch area. Enter in through the kitchen and notice the dining room to the right. There is a nice size living room with sliders to the porch area, which would make a great relaxing area or to entertain friends. The Master has a walk-in closet and bathroom with shower. 2nd bedroom has great space and closet space. 2nd Bathroom is large. Yes, this home needs some work but the price you cannot beat!!!! Carport area and storage where washer and dryer are. Floors are all solid, but home will need to be cleaned out. Seller does not know age of roof or AC. This park is a very active 55+ gated community. There is a beautiful clubhouse and shuffleboard and let's not forget the heated pool.

10. 2024-08-22
    status Pending 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    This mobile home has a great layout that feels larger than the sq footage states. Nice front porch area. Enter in through the kitchen and notice the dining room to the right. There is a nice size living room with sliders to the porch area, which would make a great relaxing area or to entertain friends. The Master has a walk-in closet and bathroom with shower. 2nd bedroom has great space and closet space. 2nd Bathroom is large. Yes, this home needs some work but the price you cannot beat!!!! Carport area and storage where washer and dryer are. Floors are all solid, but home will need to be cleaned out. Seller does not know age of roof or AC. This park is a very active 55+ gated community. There is a beautiful clubhouse and shuffleboard and let's not forget the heated pool.

11. 2024-08-19
    listed $89,900 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    This mobile home has a great layout that feels larger than the sq footage states. Nice front porch area. Enter in through the kitchen and notice the dining room to the right. There is a nice size living room with sliders to the porch area, which would make a great relaxing area or to entertain friends. The Master has a walk-in closet and bathroom with shower. 2nd bedroom has great space and closet space. 2nd Bathroom is large. Yes, this home needs some work but the price you cannot beat!!!! Carport area and storage where washer and dryer are. Floors are all solid, but home will need to be cleaned out. Seller does not know age of roof or AC. This park is a very active 55+ gated community. There is a beautiful clubhouse and shuffleboard and let's not forget the heated pool.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,553 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,553 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,548
• − Property taxes: −$1,553
• − Insurance: −$584
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$3,401
• Taxable income: $1,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$461
• After-tax cash flow: $3,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+30.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $116,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Price Changed $139,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-17 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Sold (MLS) $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-19 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,553 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.